We can’t solar panel our way out of climate change: energy demand must fall as well. And especially in the winter, when less solar energy is available! This alone is reason to construct energy-efficient buildings that need little energy for heating, and retro-fit those already built.
NZ grid emissions, predicted to 2050
Our grid’s carbon emissions are expected to drop, but only from 0.180 kgCO2e/kWhr currently to 0.120 kgCO2e/kWhr in 2050. That’s when New Zealand is supposed to be at carbon zero. This highlights that even a renewable grid is responsible for carbon emissions during the manufacture of the components, plus ongoing emissions arising from operations.
This plot from BRANZ is the predicted kgCO2e/kWhr of electricity for the NZ power grid based on the MBIE Electricity demand and generation scenarios report from 2016. The Ministry for the Environment have a published greenhouse gas figure as part of their corporate GHG reporting. This figure is higher, because BRANZ has include pre-combustion emissions and infrastructure (the MfE figure is combustion emissions and geothermal fugitive emissions only).
That said, we need to work on all fronts and there is ongoing research into generating solar power much efficiently and with less emissions from manufacture. This article outlines some research into a new way of making solar panels that reduces the carbon footprint. It’s a further development of perovskite solar cell technology and isn’t widely commercially available yet.
These tandem cells are producing 0.011 kgCO2e/kWhr over their lifetime, at least in the lab. That compares to the current technology (crystalline silicon cells) which produces around 0.025 kgCO2e/kWhr. (Both these figures are just for the panel itself.) Crystalline silicon cells have an energy payback of 1.5 years versus just four months for the perovskite-perovskite tandem cells.